Lottery Predictions – The Real Story

Some lotto players believe that making lotto predictions is perfectly valid and there are those that claim that making predictions ,using lotto number analysis, is a waste of time. It is a difficult matter for most lottery players to sort out. Who should you believe? Many players are simply left sitting on the fence not knowing who is right and who is wrong. If you don’t know where you stand, then, perhaps this article will shed some light on the subject and give you a clearer picture of what is really going on.

The Debate Over Making Lottery Predictions

The lottery prediction skeptics appear to have a good case. Their case goes something like this:

Predicting lottery numbers is a waste of time. Why analyze a lottery to make lottery predictions? After all, it’s a random game of chance. Lottery number patterns or trends don’t exist. Everyone knows that each lottery number is equally likely to hit and, ultimately, all of the numbers will hit the same number of times.

Logic and Reason Is the Best Defense

At first, it sounds like the plaintiffs arguments are solid and based on a sound mathematical foundation. But, you are about to discover that the mathematics used to support their position is misunderstood and misapplied. Alexander Pope said it best in ‘An Essay on Criticism’ in 1709: “A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again.” To paraphrase, a little knowledge isn’t worth much if that’s all you have.

First, let’s address the misunderstanding. In the field of mathematics, exists a theorem called the Law of Large Numbers. It simply states that, as the number of trials increase, the outcomes will approach the expected mean or average value. As for the lottery, this means that eventually all lottery numbers will hit the same number of times. By the way, I totally agree.

The first misunderstanding comes from the words, ‘as the number of samples or trials increase’. Increase to what? Is 50 drawings enough? 100? 1,000? 50,000? The name itself, ‘Law of Large Numbers’, should give you a clue. The second misunderstanding centers aroung the use of the word ‘approach’. If we are going to ‘approach the expected mean’, how close do we have to get before we are satisfied?

Second, let’s discuss the the misapplication. Misunderstanding the theorem results in its misapplication. I’ll show you what I mean by asking the qualifying questions that the skeptics forget to ask. How many drawings are required before the results will approach the expected mean? And, what is the expected mean?

To demonstrate the usefulness of Law of Large Numbers, a two sided coin is flipped numerous times and the results, either Heads or Tails, are recorded. The purpose of the experiment is to prove that, in a fair game, the number of Heads and Tails, for
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all intents and purposes, will be equal. It typically requires a few thousand flips before the number of Heads and Tails are within a fraction of 1% of each other.

Lotto Statistics

With regards to the lottery, the skeptic proceeds to apply this theorem but never specifies what the expected value should be nor the number of drawings required. The effect of answering these questions is very telling. To demonstrate, let’s look at some real numbers. For the purposes of this discussion, I’ll use the TX654 lottery.

In the last 336 drawings,(3 years and 3 months) 2016 numbers have been drawn (6×336). Since there are 54 lottery numbers in the hopper, each number should be drawn about 37 times. This is the expected mean. Here is the point where the skeptic gets a migraine. After 336 drawings, the results are nowhere near the expected value of 37, let alone within a fraction of 1%. Some numbers are more than 40% higher than the expected mean and other numbers are more than 35% below the expected mean. What does this imply? Obviously, if we intend to apply the Law of Large Numbers to the lottery, we will have to have many more drawings; a lot more!!!

In the coin flip experiment, with only two possible outcomes, it takes a couple of thousand trials for the results to approach the expected mean. In Lotto Texas, there are 25,827,165 possible outcomes so, how many drawings do you think it will take before lottery numbers realistically approach their expected mean? Hmmm?

Lotto Number Patterns and Trends

At this point, the argument against lottery number prediction begins to fall apart. For example, if it takes 25,827,165 drawings before the expected values of all 54 lottery numbers are within a fraction of 1% of each other, it will take 248,338 years of lottery drawings to reach that point! Amazing! We’re talking geological time frames here. Are you going to live that long?

The Law of Large Numbers is intended to be applied to a long term problem. Trying to apply it to a short term problem, our life time, proves nothing. The TX654 lottery statistics above shows that. In fact it demonstrates that lottery number patterns and trends exist. In fact, in our lifetime, they exist for all lotteries. Some lottery numbers hit 2 to 3 times more often than others and continue do so over many years of lottery drawings. Serious lottery players know this and use this knowledge to improve their play. Professional gamblers call this playing the odds.

Mathematically speaking, this shouldn’t surprise anyone. Because, for any random process in the short term, the outcomes can vary considerably from the expected value as shown in this Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

All lotteries are performing exactly as the Law of Large Numbers predicts they should. In the short term, many lottery number patternsand trends. Eventually, all lottery numbers will approach their expected mean or average value. Where the skeptic goes wrong is trying to apply a theorem intended for long term analysis to a short term problem (our lifetime).

The good news for all lottery players is that lottery number patterns that you discover with your lottery software are not only valid, they are expected. So, the best lottery advice I can give you is to buy some good lottery software, study those lottery statistics and take advantage of those lottery number patterns. They will definitely be around for a while.

By: Professor Dolph

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

Professor Dolph is the famous Lotto expert, lecturer and columnist who developed LONA, your LOttery Number Advisor. For a refre
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shing look at Lotto software, visit Lottery Number Analysis

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